In 2022 the Giants ran the 11 personnel which employs 3 WRs at 64.4% for the 14th most in the league. This increased in 2023 to 69.8% for 8th in the league. The leader in the league in 2023 for 11 personnel was the Rams with a 93.1%. The league average usage was 62.5%. The use of 11 personnel has exploded in recent years. Roughly 34 percent of the league’s offensive plays were called out of 11 personnel back in 2008. In 2020 the league average was 60 percent. This has been attributed partly to the increased proliferation of wide receivers in college with spread offenses. In 2016 with Beckham, rookie Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz, the Giants ran 11 personnel on more than 90% of their plays. The addition of Nabers, the retention of all four 2023 main receivers and the retirement of Waller, should contribute to a significant increase in the use of the 11 personnel in 2024.
There could be a core receiver corp of five wide receivers for the Giants – Nabers, Slayton, Wan’dale, Hyatt and Hodgins. That is outside the bounds of the average NFL core. If you look at receiver groups in 2023 almost all teams fall into the category of 3-4 core receivers getting 30+ percent of the snaps. The Broncos were the only team that stood out that had a core of five receivers. This also appeared to be by design and not due to injury. The Broncos had a three guys fill the WR3 role during the season: LJ Humphrey, Marvin Mims and Brandon Johnson. Jerry Jeudy was firmly WR2 and Courtland Sutton WR1. All five receivers had game starts. There were only three other teams with close to a set of five core receivers – Patriots, Saints and Texans. But those appear more due to injury rather than a designed approach. Another team over the last five seasons that used a core of five receivers was the 2022 Patriots. It is actually quite rare if you rule out the ones due to injury. I feel this is a possibility as each Giant receiver has special skills and physical attributes to contribute.
Hodgins - Money Man
Excels in 1st downs per target, red zone touchdowns, drop %, success %
Over the last 30 years Hodgins is eleventh in red zone touchdowns among Giant wide receivers. Hodgins is one of 11 active wide receivers that are 6’3” or taller, 200+ lbs and that over the last two seasons had 7+ touchdowns and 30+ first downs. On that list he is first in 1st downs/targets, success % and catch %. If you expand the list to be all time players who in their first 3 seasons (because Hodgins did not play his first season) had 7+ touchdowns and 30 first downs you get 70 players. Even still Hodgins is second among them in catch % and success % and seventh in 1st downs/targets.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Young Reliable,
Excels in Catch %, YAC short, Broken Tackles
Wan’dale is one of only eighteen active wide receivers that have 25+ career receiving yards per game with a drop % of less than 4 and a fumble percentage of less than 1. Allen Robinson is also on that list – Old Reliable.
Hyatt – Deep Threat
Excels in yds/rec., ADOT
Since 2018, when statistics on ADOT (Average Depth Of Target) are available, Hyatt has had the second highest (21 yards) by a rookie wide receiver with 8+ targets and the tenth highest by any wide receiver with 8+ targets. The league average at the wide receiver position in 2022 was 10.4 yards. Hyatt is more a projection to excel. Hyatt took tips from Steve Smith regarding his get off. He's also strengthened his upper body. At the combine he was 6’0” and 176 lbs. He is currently reported as 6’0” and 185 lbs.
Last year there were 30 wide receivers with an ADOT of 15+ yards. Of those thirty players, Hyatt was
11th in Yards per Reception
10th in Success %
9th in ADOT
9th in First Downs
8th in Yards before the catch per Reception
7th in Yards per Target
5th in Catch %
In 2023, Jalin Hyatt had the highest ADOT among wide receivers with 300+ receiving yards and ADOT greater than 15 yards. In that group of ten he had the third best catch % and the fourth best yards/target and yards before catch/reception.
I have seen multiple comps for Hyatt at draft time to DeSean Jackson. In their rookie years Jackson was targeted far more. However Hyatt had a significantly better yards per target with a 9.3 yards to Jackson’s 7.6 yards. Hyatt had better catch %, success % and yards per reception. Yet can’t ignore Jackson’s 912 receiving yards to Hyatt’s 373 nor the TDs with Jackson at 2 to Hyatt’s 0. Also Jackson had slightly better first downs to targets at 36% to 28%. Jackson had a breakout season his next two seasons passing 1000 yards receiving in each, making the Pro Bowl both years and Offensive Player of the year his third year.
As far as combine data there were similarities.
MeasurableMeasurement%tileHyatt
Height6' 0⅛"35
Weight176 lbs5
Arm Length32½"66
Hand Size9"21
10 Yard Split1.5s88
40 Yard Dash4.4s86
Vertical Jump40"91
Broad Jump135"97
MeasurableMeasurement%tileJackson
Height5' 10"12
Weight169 lbs2
Arm Length29¾"5
Hand Size9⅜"50
10 Yard Split1.53s67
40 Yard Dash4.35s91
Vertical Jump34½"*36
Broad Jump120"42
Jackson pre-draft Negatives were similar to those against Hyatt. Here are Jacksons’s
• Had no injury problems until 2007, but with his small frame, he might not be able to withstand constant punishment in the many roles he plays and might be better served concentrating on receiving with limited involvement on special teams…
• Has very good speed, but is still a bit raw running routes and must improve his transition a bit…
• Is a willing blocker, but with his lack of bulk, he is risking further injury and also gets pushed back into the pocket too much when asked to block in-line (seems slow to fit and drop weight in front of the defender for better side and mirror)…
• Has an array of moves to get a clean release, but must keep his hands active when a press-coverage defender attacks his body…
• Has great confidence in his skills, but he'll be encouraged to quiet the on-field chatter at the next level, as physical defenders will make him pay…
• Relies on his quickness to get to the ball, but must show more aggression combating for the high throws in a crowd and hears footsteps…
• Could use more bulk on his frame, but not if it will impact his best asset -- explosive running ability.
Hyatt Weaknesses
• Scheme created a variety of free releases for him.
• Route tree somewhat limited.
• Lean frame, lacking in play strength.
• Knocked off course when press punch finds him.
• Lacks deception in his short and intermediate routes.
• Unsuccessful holding ground when catch is contested.
From draft reports on Hyatt he has the two key skills that DeSean Jackson had that made him the star player he was - speed and ball skills especially tracking.
“Along with his elite acceleration, he has an uncanny ability to track and adjust to the deep ball, flashing a “go-and-get-it” gear…. Overall, Hyatt isn’t a well-rounded receiver and won’t become one overnight, but he is exceptional in two key areas (easy speed and confident ball skills)” - Dane Brugler the Athletic
Hyatt has only 8 receptions on 20 deep targets (15-16 yards as defined in stathead.com as deep). This amounted to a 40% deep target catch rate. That rate was comparable to DeSean Jackson’s rookie rate of 41.9% for 18 receptions on 43 deep targets. Hyatt’s deep receptions average 34.3 yards compared to Jackson’s rookie deep receptions which averaged 26.6 yards. Hyatt’s deep receptions were also deep when compared to the 2023 league. His 34.3 yard average was sixth most among 57 players with 20+ deep targets. It was seventh most among 64 players with 8+ deep receptions. Hyatt’s short yardage passes are not very impressive. He averaged 6.6 yards on those and made only 15% first downs to targets and 20% first downs to receptions. He could develop into a rounded overall receiver as he is young. However there is nothing wrong with him being a niche deep ball player and excel in that role. He will not get a lot of yards at that but they will be valuable and will stretch the field opening up other plays. By the way Darius Slayton was number one in both those lists for deep reception average.
I feel the Giants will be taking more shots downfield and Hyatt should see an increase in targets. Here are the Giants deep pass attempts for the last five seasons
SeasonCountCoach
2019115Shurmur
202090Judge
202186Judge
202262Daboll
202381Daboll
Here were the Bills deep pass attempts in the year prior to Daboll being the offensive coordinator and the years he was
SeasonCountOC
2017100Rick Dennison
2018146Daboll
2019121Daboll
2020122Daboll
2021120Daboll
It indicates that Daboll may want to take more deep shots downfield. Jones has not done that much but when he has he has gotten good reports on his downfield pass ability, For the 2022 season PFF rated Jones as having the 7th best deep passing performance
7. DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS
28 dropbacks, 91.8 passing grade
Deep Passing Yards: 359 (30th)
Deep Passing TDs: 2 (T-28th)
Passer Rating: 119.4 (3rd)
Deep Comp%: 43.5% (9th)
From reports I get the impression that both Hyatt and Daniel Jones have tremendous work ethics. Word from the OTAs are that both look good. These bode well to what they could accomplish on a full year working and playing together.
Slayton - Yardman
Excels in YAC long, yds/tgt, yds/game
Slayton is 13th among Giant wide receivers in career receiving yards.
Nabers – The Rookie
Excels in Rookie hype. :-)
At LSU in 2024, Nabers registered a 33.7% forced missed tackle rate -- 30 missed tackles forced on 89 receptions last season. Nabers led the FBS last year in receiving plays of 20+ and 30+ yards.
I created a spreadsheet that projects snap counts and receiving yards for 2024 and uploaded it to Google Docs. I have Nabers with over 1000 yards and the Giants with 4000+. It tends to higher use of 11 personnel and has 5 core receivers of 30+ snap percentage. Also there is a sheet that shows rookie receivers over the last 5 years that had 30+ snap percents and played in 12+ games. It shows their yards per snap numbers. Another sheet has some Giant teams numbers and the two teams mentioned that had 5 core receivers. The projection sheet has some explanation. There are also user sheets if you would like to copy the projection sheet and post your scenario. Use the Available/Taken dropdown to claim a sheet, put in an username and when complete select the complete dropdown. If you can when done select the worksheet tab and right click and change color to red. I plan to track this during the season.
I look forward to the season and think the Giants will show a significant improvement. In summary here are things I believe or hope will occur
1. Significant increase in 11 personnel, even use of 10 personnel
2. Use of five core receivers (> 30% snaps)
3. Significant increase (50%) in deep pass attempts
4. Good season for Jalin Hyatt, 23% increase in yards
5. 1,000+ receiving yards for Nabers
6. The Giants hit 4000 passing yards
There is precedent for such a drastic change. The Buffalo Bills under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll went from 3476 passing yards in 2019 to 4786 yards in 2020. They brought in wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They went from a team that used 11 personnel 70% and 4 WR at 0% in 2019 to in 2020 using 11 personnel at 71% but now 10 personnel (4 WRs) at 15%. The offensive line was improved and Josh Allen went from 2.3 seconds pocket time to 2.6 seconds. Devin Singletary was a plus in pass protection. They went from 513 pass attempts in 2019 to 596 in 2020. Following the 2019 season, Josh Allen was ranked as the 18th best quarterback to start in 2019 at nfl.com. If Daboll takes on the play calling duties these sort of changes become more likely.
"Every year is different and that's why we believe in having a fairly expansive playbook because you don't know who the players are until you get them in, whenever it may be, free agency, the draft, undrafted however that sorts itself out," said Daboll in 2020. ".... So in training camp when you're out there your job as a coach is to figure out who you want on the field, and then tailor that to the guys that you have. You've really got to see what you got. You've got to see them go out there and execute it and if you have good players you better find a way to use them. And that's what we try to do."
Looking at the snap counts for Daboll’s first year with the Giants things did not change much in quantity use of offensive skills positions. It would appear that he was simply managing the roster changes such as loss of Evan Engram, taking on Richie James, injury to Golladay and poor play, dealing with Toney, working rookie Wan’dale into the lineup, and dealing with poor play and injury with rookie Evan Neal. No major shakeups though. Year 2023 off-hand appeared to be simply fighting wildfires. I believe this year we are in for a major overhaul in how things work on offense and word of Daboll possibly taking over play calling would reinforce this. He will make his stamp on this team for better or worse this year, like his 2020 Buffalo season.
