Rockets 2024 NBA Draft Big Board: Who could Houston draft at No. 3? (2024)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the draft is a crapshoot. All of it.

Evaluating young players is an arduous task requiring dozens of educated, unbiased opinions — and it still might not matter in five years. The more people around the league you speak to about the 2024 class, the more difficult it becomes to separate players into talent groups, or tiers. And that’s just analyzing the group as a whole; it’s an entirely different ballgame when it pertains to a specific team.

Different aspects must be taken into account — a franchise’s timeline, where they finished the prior season, philosophy on roster building, etc. The conversation about what the Houston Rockets should do was confusing before the draft lottery, where they were projected to end up with the ninth pick. Now that they have jumped into the top three, opinions are all over the place.

There are some, such as this party of one, who think the best option is to trade the pick for a veteran contributor. This is a Rockets team that had 41 wins in the regular season, 19 more than the previous season. That degree of improvement warrants a continued upward trajectory that I don’t think adding another young talent to the roster will. But again, that is my thinking. There are plenty of others who see no harm in drafting high again.

In the end, it’s a fun exercise. And until a deal gets done, we’ll operate as if Houston is keeping their pick and drafting at No. 3. Here is version 1.0 of my Rockets big board, based on individual research and conversations with people within the organization and around the league. Several deciding factors go into this ranking — talent, team fit, style of play and head coach Ime Udoka’s influence.

1. Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda

You won’t see either of Perth’s Alex Sarr or JL Bourg’s Zaccharie Risacher on this list, because I’m projecting them to be the first two names off the board on June 26 and I don’t foresee the Rockets moving up. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I just don’t think that’s going to happen.

Topić ticks several boxes for Houston. From a roster standpoint, there’s a need for another point guard. Aaron Holiday’s role as backup to Fred VanVleet last season felt more circ*mstantial than long-term. Holiday had a solid campaign showing he can contribute to winning basketball and if there was a better situation in free agency, he would take it. Taking Topić also requires a certain line of thinking, understanding last year’s No. 4 pick Amen Thompson is a dynamic playmaker and talent, but is more of a secondary wing half-court creator than a traditional point guard. In this sense, the two could play off each other.

One of the concerns for Topić is his outside shooting and I get it. He shot a shade under 31 percent from 3 this past year, in line with Josh Giddey’s career output. But watching Topić shoot, it doesn’t look like a deal breaker to me. The form looks good, it’s the mechanics that could be smoothed out and sped up, similar to Jalen Green’s rookie season. The fact that Topić is proficient from the free-throw line with the same form leads me to believe improving his floor spacing is doable. I also think it would be an easier task working with lead assistant Ben Sullivan on tweaking a jumper as opposed to Thompson’s, which needed to be fundamentally reworked.

Topić is a bit of an upright ball handler, similar to Goran Dragić or Andre Miller (without the athleticism) in his heyday, but he’s shown an ability to get to spots on the floor, attack downhill and is creative around the basket. He’s a quality playmaker, knows how to make the right reads in pick-and-rolls and can keep an offense humming. Last season, Houston’s offensive efficiency dropped in the non-VanVleet minutes, scoring about 111.9 points per 100 possessions per PBPStats. That’s borderline bottom-five production. Pairing Topić with Thompson would give the Rockets’ second unit a quality playmaking one-two punch. Defensively, there’s a lot to be desired but Topić has shown he’s capable of using his length to break up plays, navigate screens and be somewhat of a disruptor. At that size, you’d hope to extract more consistency but he’s an 18-year-old kid playing professionally overseas. He’s not a finished product yet, and he doesn’t have to be.

2. Matas Buzelis | 6-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite

I’m not sure if Udoka ever caught wind of Buzelis publicly calling out Risacher and challenging him to a game, but that level of self-confidence and desire to compete should resonate with the Rockets head coach. Buzelis’ interview with Houston during the combine was noteworthy, to the point where one staffer recently reminded me of James Harden’s pre-draft process, when then-guard Tyrese Evans demanded Harden play him in one-on-one. Harden would end up being drafted third overall and Evans would go fourth to Sacramento but that mentality carried Evans to the Rookie of the Year award.

There’s a lot to like about Buzelis, particularly with a Rockets roster that lacks this combination of size, versatility and upside outside of the starting lineup. The Rockets caught several teams by surprise in March after Alperen Şengün went down with an ankle injury, Jabari Smith Jr. was moved to center and Udoka opted to close the year with small ball. The frontcourt pairing of Smith and Buzelis, especially with the latter’s decent ballhandling and three-level potential, intrigues me.

Similar to Topić, Buzelis’ shooting is a big question after converting less than 30 percent of his 3s, but I like the mechanics of his shot. There’s a fluidity from the point of the catch to the release, ironically similar to Smith. I wouldn’t use the G League as a basis for shot creation or overall efficiency, considering the elite passing abilities of VanVleet, Şengün and Thompson. Buzelis also showed that he can function as a solid team defender, even though he needs to add some bulk to his frame. He moves side to side decently for his size, can block shots and could help in the rebounding department.

3. Stephon Castle | 19 years old | 6-6 wing | Connecticut

It’s hard not to fall in love with Castle’s intangibles.

He’s a winner who performed at the highest level of Division 1, showcasing a mature reading of the game on both ends of the floor. He’s a tenacious, gritty, versatile defender who isn’t afraid to mix things up, all while being able to run an offense at times. If there was a player in this draft class that aligned with the brand of basketball embedded in Udoka’s DNA, it’s Castle. He says all the right things, is unselfish and competes. Seeing him toggle half-court matchups with Tari Eason would give opposing teams fits.

UConn's Stephon Castle, who is 6-foot-6, said today at the NBA Draft Combine that he views himself as a point guard at the NBA level. Here's video of Castle describing the skills and traits he'll bring on both ends: pic.twitter.com/s2DWooR2Xs

— Josh Robbins (@JoshuaBRobbins) May 14, 2024

For teams that are geared toward winning, there is value to be had in players who can come in and be glue guys, connecting the pieces that are already in place. Like his colleagues above him on this list, Castle’s shooting will be the swing skill for him, after hitting just 27 percent of his outside looks (Can anyone shoot anymore?). If he can get to a place in his development where he can consistently knock down shots (outside of the impressive 18-of-25 combine showing), he’ll have a long, successful career.

Castle has maintained his preference of playing point guard, another reason why a marriage with Houston makes sense, but he’s less of a primary creator than Topić and might not mesh as seamlessly with Thompson or others in the second unit. Still, Castle’s upside should leave teams intrigued and it wouldn’t shock me if his name is called. He’s a winner in a league predicated on winning. Sometimes, it’s as simple as that.

4. Donovan Clingan | 20 years old | 7-foot-2 center | Connecticut

Drafting Clingan at No. 3 means two things to me. One, the Rockets either see Steven Adams as a stopgap (or potential trade chip) and two, Udoka really wants a young rim protector.

I was impressed watching Clingan’s movement, especially at that size and weight. Drop defensive schemes can often be a death knell, but Clingan’s ability to show and recover, all while shutting down the interior, is a great skill at that age.

I also like that he made it a point to display his shooting in Chicago during the combine, showing he’s not just an immobile shot-blocking center. In today’s NBA, the center position is such a diverse playing field but shooting is the one skill that ties everything together. Are there lineups where Clingan and Şengün could play together? I asked the 20-year-old that question a few weeks ago and liked his honest take about spacing. He doesn’t have to be Brook Lopez, a common comparison given the size, but Clingan can occasionally step out and make a 3. He’ll only get better with age and reps.

Donovan Clingan has shown off an improved shooting stroke with NBA three-point range in workouts, per @DraftExpress (https://t.co/yVi24sFflQ).

Clingan’s theoretical ceiling is tied to becoming a Brook Lopez-like offensive archetype alongside being a dominant rim protector.

The… pic.twitter.com/XbTfY1cnls

— Evan Sidery (@esidery) May 22, 2024

Clingan is a simplified, efficient big — capable playmaker around the elbows, solid screen setter, decent rebounder and a quality shot blocker. Houston, despite a vastly improved defensive jump, lacked a true rim protector. That missing piece alone might have cost them four or five games in the Western Conference, the difference between the Play-In and staying home. That alone should make Clingan’s name worth mentioning, even with Adams (and Jock Landale) on the books for next season.

5. Reed Sheppard | 20 years old | 6-2 guard | Kentucky

I understand the appeal. Sheppard is one of the best shooters in this draft class and on a Rockets team that is crying out for snipers, this should be an obvious fit, right?

Not that simple.

For one, I’m not in love with the measurements. Sheppard is 6-foot-2, taller than Holiday, but the latter’s near-6-8 wingspan lends him to solid team defense. Sheppard’s wingspan is 6-2.5, which can get you into trouble, especially if your defensive gambles are unsuccessful.

Don’t get me wrong, Sheppard is a smart player with the ball in his hands. He would fit in well in Houston’s second unit, pushing the pace himself or getting the ball ahead to the likes of Cam Whitmore, Thompson and Eason. Sheppard can make the right reads consistently, knows how to relocate off the ball and is a decent enough creator. As said earlier, he would walk in as the best shooter on the roster. There’s a lot to like. I just tend to shy away from undersized guards, especially ones who gamble. There are numerous possessions of Sheppard getting blown by that don’t look great, with his upright posture and poor positioning. I don’t think Sheppard is getting that similar rate of success on steals and blocks in college as he would at the next level, and the minuses in his game might play him off the floor.

(Top photo of UConn’s Stephon Castle: AP Photo / Jessica Hill)

Kelly Iko is a staff writer covering the Houston Rockets and the NBA for The Athletic. The upcoming 2023-24 season will be his eighth following the NBA, having previously worked with USA Today and ESPN Houston. Follow Kelly on Twitter @KellyIko