2024 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Preview: Sleepers, breakouts, busts, tiers and more (2024)

As host of Fantasy Football Today Dynasty, I get to talk to a lot of very smart people about rookies both before and after the NFL Draft. While I do get a wide range of opinions about individual players, it's also interesting where the consensus is. One strong consensus in 2024 is that this is the best wide receiver class we've seen in at least a decade. Most everyone I talked to agreed that Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were the top three wide receiver prospects of the past three seasons. And they believed the draft was deep at the position as well.

That level of excitement only shows up in redraft rankings for one of those wide receivers, at least across the board. Harrison is a top-12 wide receiver this year for almost everyone, and he's one of my breakouts below. You'll have to take him in Round 2 if you want him. Nabers has a consensus ADP closer to 24 and is one of my biggest rankings outliers and one of my busts below. You can read why in that section. No one seems to have any idea what they should do with Odunze.

The most common comparison is to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, because of the target competition that Odunze will face from both D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Another similarity is that Shane Waldron called plays for Seattle last year and will be Odunze's offensive coordinator this year. Of course, that's a pretty unfavorable comparison, as Smith-Njigba finished last season as WR60, averaging just 8.8 Fantasy points per game.

Assuming these three receivers really are as talented as the experts believe, you may just want to throw projections out the window in a draft or two, to make sure you don't totally miss on Nabers and Odunze. At the very least, you should watch the waiver wire early in the season to see if anyone drops either. While a lot of rookie wide receivers do bust, the ones who hit often do so with second-half explosions. And those explosions often come after very slow starts. Rashee Rice didn't have more than five catches in a game until Week 12. Amon-Ra St. Brown didn't score a touchdown until Week 13 of his rookie season. Patience is required with rookie pass catchers, even elite prospects.

As for the rest of the class, I'm looking to throw mid-round darts at Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Keon Coleman, but none before Round 8. In the double-digit rounds, you can also target Troy Franklin, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette. In deeper leagues, you may even want to take a shot on one of the Patriots rookies or Malachi Corley. It's rare for wide receivers taken late in deep drafts to matter in redraft, but they're often rookies when they do.

Wide receiver draft strategy

If you want to draft elite wide receivers, get ready to spend more than you ever have. Near the bottom of this page, you'll see my tiers, and they should help differentiate who I think is elite. Essentially, a Tier 1 wide receiver (I say there are six) is going to cost you a Round 1 pick. If you want a top 10 wide receiver, they all go in the first two rounds, except for Mike Evans. Where things get really interesting in terms of strategy is Tier 5.

These are wide receivers 14 through 31 in my rankings, and in my projections, they are separated by less than one Fantasy point per game. It's an enormous tier of guys best thought of as WR2s, but I would love to have my WR3 or flex come from this group as well. Their ADP in CBS PPR leagues ranged from 29th overall (Nico Collins) to 83rd overall (Chris Godwin). I would challenge you to compare your thoughts on these wideouts to ADP and center your wide receiver strategy around that.

The other thing to figure out in terms of wide receiver strategy is how you feel about the 30-plus crowd. Evans, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkinsall have the potential to be enormous values based on ADP if they don't lose a step and can stay healthy.

Once you get to the later rounds, focus on those rookies above and young post-hype sleepers like Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, and Quentin Johnston. Also, focus on my three favorite sleepers, who are in the next section.

Now let's get to sleepers, breakouts, and busts. One quick note: ADP here is the current CBS ADP.

Sleepers

Projections powered by Sportsline

Curtis Samuel WR BUF Buffalo • #1 Age: 27 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 138th WR RNK 56th PROJ PTS 155.7 SOS 4 ADP 139 2023 Stats REC 62 TAR 91 REYDS 613 TD 5 FPTS/G 9.8 The race to be Josh Allen's number one target appears to be wide open with Samuel battling Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman, and tight end Dalton Kincaid. Samuel's biggest edge may be his relationship with Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, who coached Samuel in Carolina. That year, Samuel totaled 1,051 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in 15 games on 97 targets and 41 rush attempts. That work in the running game is probably somewhat necessary for him to be a Fantasy starter, but he does have at least 19 carries in three different seasons. He's also earned more than 90 targets in a season multiple times playing with D.J. Moore or Terry McLaurin, and there's no one of that caliber on this roster.

Josh Palmer WR LAC L.A. Chargers • #5 Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 111th WR RNK 50th PROJ PTS 169.6 SOS 9 ADP 162.3 2023 Stats REC 38 TAR 61 REYDS 581 TD 2 FPTS/G 10.7 If you look at ADP, rookie Ladd McConkey is everyone's favorite Chargers' wide receiver, and second-year player Quentin Johnston is the consensus favorite sleeper. While those guys may have the upside and draft capital, Josh Palmer has the experience with Justin Herbert. Palmer played three games last year without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and caught 17 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, averaging 13.9 PPR Fantasy points per game. In 2022, the duo missed two games and Palmer caught 11 passes for 150 yards and averaged 13 PPR FPPG. I project him to lead the team in targets in Week 1 and even once McConkey gets acclimated, I believe Palmer could be a valuable Fantasy asset.

Demario Douglas WR NE New England • #3 Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 162nd WR RNK NR PROJ PTS 166.3 SOS 5 ADP 165 2023 Stats REC 49 TAR 79 REYDS 561 TD 0 FPTS/G 7.7 This summer, Douglas has reportedly been the Patriots' best wide receiver, though Kendrick Bourne has not been a participant. This tracks because last year Bourne was the team's top wideout before he got hurt, and then Douglas led the team with seven targets per game the rest of the way. This is not a team that we project to be all that competitive, so even if the soon-to-be 29-year-old Bourne starts the season ahead of Douglas we don't think it will last long. Of course, he'll also have to hold off rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. The nice thing is, that all of the Patriots wide receivers qualify as sleepers with their ADPs, just pick your favorite.

Breakouts

Projections powered by Sportsline

Garrett Wilson WR NYJ N.Y. Jets • #5 Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 11th WR RNK 7th PROJ PTS 263 SOS 8 ADP 20 2023 Stats REC 95 TAR 168 REYDS 1042 TD 3 FPTS/G 12.6 We're drafting Wilson at the end of Round 1 and I don't believe it's far-fetched to say he has WR1 overall upside. Aaron Rodgers has often targeted his number one wide receiver at a rate of 10 targets per game or higher and Wilson has already shown the ability to earn that volume. It's just difficult to know how much to bump his efficiency because it has understandably been pedestrian. If he can approach nine yards per target and match Rodgers' career six percent TD rate then Wilson will be in the conversation with Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb for WR1.

George Pickens WR PIT Pittsburgh • #14 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 48th WR RNK 20th PROJ PTS 199.6 SOS 17 ADP 56 2023 Stats REC 63 TAR 106 REYDS 1140 TD 5 FPTS/G 12.3 Last year George Pickens accounted for 33.3% of the Steelers' receiving yards and 38.4% of their receiving touchdowns. Since then, the team has added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields while losing Diontae Johnson. If you're thinking in your head "Yeah, but Arthur Smith" know that Smith's Falcons threw the ball more than the Steelers did last year and that Pickens' offensive coordinator last year was Matt Canada. Want to talk about upside? In four games without Johnson last year, Pickens was on pace for 72 catches for 1,517 yards and that doesn't include his top two yardage games last year. Top 12 is not out of consideration, especially if Russell Wilson keeps throwing touchdowns at a high rate.

Marvin Harrison Jr. WR ARI Arizona • #18 Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 16th WR RNK 9th PROJ PTS 269.5 SOS 6 ADP 21 Like Wilson, Harrison is another former Buckeye that I have no problem projecting as a future No. 1 wide receiver overall. It probably won't happen during his rookie season, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely. Harrison should be the clear top wideout in targets and we've already seen Kyler Murray lock in on his WR1 when he had one. In his first year in Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins earned a 27.2% target share on a team with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. Harrison could hit that mark as a rookie, but truly hitting his ceiling will depend on red zone production and just how efficient he can be. He averaged 16.9 yards per reception in three years at Ohio State.

Bust

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Drake London WR ATL Atlanta • #5 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 27th WR RNK 15th PROJ PTS 239.7 SOS 28 ADP 31 2023 Stats REC 69 TAR 109 REYDS 905 TD 2 FPTS/G 10.9 London is being drafted early in Round 3 as the number 13 wide receiver despite the fact that he's averaged 53.7 yards per game and scored just six touchdowns in his first 33 games. The reason? He has a new head coach (who is a defensive coach), and new offensive coordinator (who has never called plays), and a new quarterback (who tore his Achilles nine months ago). I'm not saying it can't work out, London does have great pedigree, but he's being drafted like it already has. I would much rather draft Pickens, especially since he's going two rounds later.

DJ Moore WR CHI Chicago • #2 Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 46th WR RNK 21st PROJ PTS 240 SOS 20 ADP 37 2023 Stats REC 96 TAR 136 REYDS 1364 TD 9 FPTS/G 16.9 While most people expect Caleb Williams and Shane Waldron to be upgrades for Moore, rookie QBs are no guarantee and Waldron didn't exactly take DK Metcalf to new heights in Seattle. I would overlook those minor risks and take Moore right about here if the Bears hadn't added both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Allen has been better than Moore per game every year of his career and is legitimately one of the great target earners of the past decade. Odunze is arguably one of the top three wide receiver prospects of the past three seasons. This is too much target competition in an uncertain offense with a rookie QB.

Malik Nabers WR NYG N.Y. Giants • #9 Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 67th WR RNK 33rd PROJ PTS 194.2 SOS 31 ADP 56 This year we have three very good former top-12 picks who most people are projecting to break out: London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave. The reason we're still waiting is because their quarterback play has held them back. I am afraid that will be the case with Nabers as well. In the Daniel Jones era, no pass catcher has ever topped 800 yards receiving, and only Golden Tate has averaged 60 yards per game. While it's true they haven't had a player of Malik Nabers' caliber, they did spend a lot of money on Kenny Golladay, who possessed a 17-game average of 73-1,224-8 the three years before everything went wrong in New York. And while Darren Waller was clearly at the end of his career, he was also noticeably better with Tyrod Taylor than he was with Jones. I love this player, but the situation will not support a top 24 wide receiver I fear.

Numbers to know

• 18.1 -- George Pickens led all wide receivers at 18.1 yards per reception last year. He won't keep that up, but volume and catch rate boosts should more than make up for it.
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• 1,001 -- Mike Evans has topped 1,000 receiving yards every year of his career and his 1,255 last year was his best number since 2018.
• 36.6% -- Tyreek Hill's 36.6% targets per route run rate was 20% better than any other wide receiver last year.
• 3.0 -- Since the start of the 2022 season, 29 WRs have seen at least 100 targets. Drake London's 3.0 yards after catch per reception is tied for 26th best. Only Adam Thielen and DeAndre Hopkins have done less after the catch.
• 6 -- There have been six games over the past two seasons that Tee Higgins has left early with injury. Part of your receiver draft strategy has to be determining whether he is actually injury prone, or just unlucky. If it's the latter, then Higgins is a huge steal on Draft Day, he's been a high-end WR2 when healthy with Burrow.
• 2.39 -- Nico Collins led all wide receivers (minimum 100 targets) at 2.39 Fantasy points per target last year. Stefon Diggs was 22nd at 1.71. Tank Dell didn't have enough targets to qualify but scored 2.20 FPPT, tied for sixth-best amongst WRs with at least 50 targets.
• 41.3% -- Calvin Ridley led all wide receivers with a 41.3% red zone target rate last year. New teammate DeAndre Hopkins was fourth at 36.2%.
• 8.7 -- Rashee Rice averaged 8.7 targets per game after the Chiefs bye. He was WR12 per game in that stretch.

Format matters

Most of this piece, including tiers and ADP, are based on PPR leagues. We recognize many of you play in half-PPR. Here's a list of players who we expect to be significantly better, and worse, in half-PPR:

Better in half-PPR:Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Tank Dell, DK Metcalf, Christian Watson,

Worse in half-PPR: Chris Olave, Michael Pittman, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson

Tiers

Projections